Predictions about predator drones?

[nancylebov]

Anyone care to guess when the first drone attack on the US will be?

There are too many interesting factors to be worth setting them up as a poll, so.....

On the US military abroad? On a US embassy? On what is usually considered the US?

At this point, drones seem to be mostly used for killing individuals. How long till they can deliver a more destructive payload?

Meanwhile, targeted assassination or random terrorism?

Subverted US drone, some other's government's design and production, or homebuilt? For completeness' sake, repurposed drone built by another government?

Turns out to be directed by an American? Allied to a non-US organization or home-grown terrorism?

Any other questions?

If you want to make a public checkable prediction, Prediction Book is a convenient resource. The founder of Prediction Book writes about what they've gotten from evaluating the accuracy of a large number of predictions.

I don't have a strong feeling myself about the timing for the first predator drone attack on the US, but within a decade doesn't seem crazy. I can't see a laws of war argument that Pakistan shouldn't use predators against the US.

Comments

[twistedchick]

Not only do I not want to guess, since I live ten miles from the likeliest target, I don't want to know.

[zenlizard]

>At this point, drones seem to be mostly used for killing individuals. How long till they can deliver a more destructive payload?

Considering that a drone is nothing more than a somewhat more controlled cruise missile, and that remote-controlled vehicles like glide bombs and cruise missiles and such have been used in wars since world war 2, these questions are way behind the times.

It will be the cops targeting citizens.

[fengi.livejournal.com]

I highly doubt it will be terrorists. Far more likely it will be a strike on civilians by the Miami Police Department (https://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/27/business/worldbusiness/27iht-drone.4.11474996.html), probably during the Republican Convention (http://www.tampabay.com/news/localgovernment/tampa-could-add-surveillance-cameras-for-republican-national-convention/1195245), or some other police or military strike. Given how they are already using drones at the border (http://thehill.com/homenews/news/101449-predator-b-drones-deployed-on-texas-mexico-border), I wouldn't be surprised there's if it turns out there's been an incident involving American citizens already.

Re: It will be the cops targeting citizens.

[avram]

Yeah, this sounds likeliest.

[selenite.livejournal.com]

A drone carrying a more destructive payload is called a "cruise missile" and goes back to the WWII V-1. Hezbollah hit an Israel ship with one in 2006.

[whc.livejournal.com]

Yep, we've had the ability to deliver a nuke with a drone since the '70s.

[whc.livejournal.com]

Didn't they just catch someone with a home mode drone loaded with C4?

[avram]

Sorta-kinda, but not really.

Specifically, Rezwan Ferdaus was supposedly (the FBI says) planning to load up a bunch of remote-controlled model airplanes with C-4 and use them to attack the Pentagon. He only had enough money to buy one model airplane (it cost over six grand), and the FBI gave him the (fake) C-4.

So they caught someone who was thinking about making homemade drones loaded with C-4.

[richardthinks.livejournal.com]

I can't see a laws of war argument that Pakistan shouldn't use predators against the US

Ahahaha. Like any "laws of war" don't just support the interests of the powerful against the less powerful.

No, no other government is going to use a drone on the US - not until US military superiority is gone. But as fengi says, law enforcement agencies, private individuals or companies might. My money's on some branch of the US govt using one on citizens first, then homegrown terrorists or activists using one on the public or on officials, all inside 15 years.

[subnumine.livejournal.com]

If you're going to include attacks on American citizens, nine years ago (http://tech.mit.edu/V122/N54/long4-54.54w.html).

If that assassination did not provoke retaliation in kind, the death of Awlaki may not either. Presumably lack of munitions is the limitation; if Wikipedia is right in thinking the Predator a 21st century weapon, they may not have been handed out to very many pet despots, and are therefore not as widespread as, say, Stingers.

[henrytroup.livejournal.com]

It might involve a signal override on a US device.