I suspect many conservatives and/or Republicans would not be able to believe that a Democrat could possibly be for gun rights. If Howard Dean had been the candidate, Republican politicians and conservative commentators would have been yapping about Vermont's ultra-fascist gun laws.

That aside: According to every analysis I've seen, the area where I grew up should have gone heavily for Bush. Ulster County, NY used to be rural and is now micropolitan. But it went for Kerry. It's not exactly a typical rural/small city area; but by all the pronouncements, that either shouldn't have mattered or should have made it more likely to go for Bush.