But what if people sometimes know what they're talking about?

A while ago, there was a study which turned up that the difference between very good chess players and other chess players is that the very good players think about what happens if their preferred move doesn't work.

Here is a rant with about not getting accurate information about food allergens followed by a shocking number of comments about people who slip allergens to the allergic because "the allergy is all in their heads". While I'd heard of this happening, it was done by an especially malevolant person--I had no idea it was common behavior.

Aside from going into "I hate people" mode, is there any conceivable way to teach people to ask themselves, "But what if it doesn't work?"?

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Lunacon was at a new hotel this year, and as is commonly the case, the management didn't believe anything the committee said about how much the attendees would be using the restaurant, elevators, or anything else. Is this a matter of people just don't believe what they're told and/or that if you have a business, people will tell you how to run it, and the accuracy level isn't especially high? Could it be worthwhile for fans to put together an educational packet for new hotels with pictures of crowded restaurants, numbers from past conventions, and quotes from con-experienced hotel managements?

But what if people sometimes know what they're talking about?

A while ago, there was a study which turned up that the difference between very good chess players and other chess players is that the very good players think about what happens if their preferred move doesn't work.

Here is a rant with about not getting accurate information about food allergens followed by a shocking number of comments about people who slip allergens to the allergic because "the allergy is all in their heads". While I'd heard of this happening, it was done by an especially malevolant person--I had no idea it was common behavior.

Aside from going into "I hate people" mode, is there any conceivable way to teach people to ask themselves, "But what if it doesn't work?"?

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Lunacon was at a new hotel this year, and as is commonly the case, the management didn't believe anything the committee said about how much the attendees would be using the restaurant, elevators, or anything else. Is this a matter of people just don't believe what they're told and/or that if you have a business, people will tell you how to run it, and the accuracy level isn't especially high? Could it be worthwhile for fans to put together an educational packet for new hotels with pictures of crowded restaurants, numbers from past conventions, and quotes from con-experienced hotel managements?

Fab Labs and investment, medical waste

This is an email I sent to Tyler Cowan at Marginal Revolution, a fine economics blog with an irritating lack of public comments in regards to fab labs (home factories) and medical waste.

The outcome depends a *lot* on just what the fab labs are capable of--if all they can do is plastic, they'll make a difference. If they can do electronics as well, it's a bigger difference. If they can do complex organics (food? drugs? viruses?) it's huge. And if they can do living things, life will get genuinely weird.

Another question: will fab labbed items tend to be cheaper than manufactured items, or mostly just more convenient/ more customizable?

In any case, I'd expect energy, infrastructure, and personal services (have you read Heinlein's "We Also Walk Dogs"?--it's about a company that offers all sorts of legal services, a sort of super-concierge) to all survive fab labs very nicely. It's not obvious which would be best. I'd expect real estate prices to rise if people are spending less of their money on stuff until and unless tech reaches the point where there's no huge advantage to living in or near a high density area.

Here's a non-standard suspect in re medical waste: From _The Lost Art of Healing_ by Bernard Lown, there's the idea that hasty examinations are hideously wasteful. The first complaint a patient mentions is frequently not the real problem, but if the examination is too brief, the patient not only fails to get treated for the actual ailment, but may suffer side effects while being treated for the wrong thing. And the patient or the government or the insurance company or somebody pays for it all, too.

Fab Labs and investment, medical waste

This is an email I sent to Tyler Cowan at Marginal Revolution, a fine economics blog with an irritating lack of public comments in regards to fab labs (home factories) and medical waste.

The outcome depends a *lot* on just what the fab labs are capable of--if all they can do is plastic, they'll make a difference. If they can do electronics as well, it's a bigger difference. If they can do complex organics (food? drugs? viruses?) it's huge. And if they can do living things, life will get genuinely weird.

Another question: will fab labbed items tend to be cheaper than manufactured items, or mostly just more convenient/ more customizable?

In any case, I'd expect energy, infrastructure, and personal services (have you read Heinlein's "We Also Walk Dogs"?--it's about a company that offers all sorts of legal services, a sort of super-concierge) to all survive fab labs very nicely. It's not obvious which would be best. I'd expect real estate prices to rise if people are spending less of their money on stuff until and unless tech reaches the point where there's no huge advantage to living in or near a high density area.

Here's a non-standard suspect in re medical waste: From _The Lost Art of Healing_ by Bernard Lown, there's the idea that hasty examinations are hideously wasteful. The first complaint a patient mentions is frequently not the real problem, but if the examination is too brief, the patient not only fails to get treated for the actual ailment, but may suffer side effects while being treated for the wrong thing. And the patient or the government or the insurance company or somebody pays for it all, too.