A prediction in very bad taste

[nancylebov]

The Virginia Tech killer will turn out to have had a military background.

Update. I was wrong. While South Korea does have compulsory military service, Cho came to the US when he was 8. No military background at all.

Comments

[dcseain.livejournal.com]

Seeing as DOD and the VA don't believe in mental health care, nor closed-head injuries, this would not be unlikely.

[nancylebov.livejournal.com]

Actually, I suspect that isn't the problem. Just for the hell of it, I've been putting together my notion of the killer, and he might not have had extreme psychological problems when/if he was in the military, and I'm not sure that a closed head injury fits the specs.

I imagine him as someone with considerably better than average reflexes and spacial skills, and a habit of obsessing about grudges and a tendency towards spite and revenge. He *might* have completed military service and gotten an honorable discharge, but in any case, I bet there were people who were glad to see him go.

It's possible that his anger and spitefulness weren't as extreme when he was younger, but the accumulation of bad mental habits got worse over time.

As I understand it, there are head injuries which can permanently lower inhibitions, but I've never heard of any injury which correlates with extreme premeditated violence.

I'm going to assume that if he'd suffered any injuries, they're pretty much healed, just because his mind and body had to be in fairly good shape.

These are, of course, guesses, but I'm curious to see how close I've gotten.

[(Anonymous)]

Yeah, very poor taste. What will you give up if you are wrong?

Can I predict instant Jihad syndrome? Or maybe someone who played first person shooters? Or maybe just some whack who went off his meds?

Is your prediction true, useful, or kind? I don't think it's any of those, or even very likely.

[autopope.livejournal.com]

Whoever the killer is, they killed near-as-dammit an order of magnitude more folks than the normal shooter. They went to ground between incidents and evaded detection.

These are not normal characteristics of a deranged killer; they suggest specialist training or expertise. I think that's what Nancy's getting at, and while that doesn't automatically mean "military", I think she's correct in her general assumption.

A point Kathryn Kramer made some time ago is: the private military contractors in Iraq are basically recruiting disturbed and/or psychopathic personalities, paying them $1000 a day, and training them, in return for sending them to a war zone to shoot people. (It's worth asking what sort of person signs up to do the Iraq mercenary tour? Not patriots out of a sense of duty -- if that's what they were, they could just join the Army.) What happens when those people come home, after getting a taste for killing ...?

[nancylebov.livejournal.com]

Exactly, for why I thought it would take a military background.

As for the insult to the military, it occurs to me that even if I'm right about a military background, the fact that the death count is so extraordinarily high suggests that people with combat training/experience might be less likely to become mass killers than the general populace.

You may be right that it was a contractor with no military background, though I'd be surprised if they get as good combat training.

[xiphias.livejournal.com]

Well, going through the list of school massacres at Wikipedia:

The Enoch Brown massacre (1764) was perpetrated by four Delaware Indian warriors, which is military background, I guess.

Andrew Kehoe, who perpetrated the Bath Township massacre in 1927 did not have a military background.

I don't think Paul Orgeron of the Poe Elementary massacre in 1959 in Houston was military.

Charles Whitman of the Austin belltower sniper attacks in 1966 was an ex-Marine.

The Avavim school bus massacre and the Ma'alot massacre (1970 and 1974) were carried out by Palastinian militants in Israel.

The Kent State massacre in 1970 was done by National Guard which is military.

I can't find much on the background of Edward Allerton of the 1976 Fullerton Library massacre, but I figure SOMEONE would mention if he was ex-military, in the reports on his mental state. But that one may be classified as a workplace shooting instead of a school shooting. Or both.

Marc Lepine of the 1989 Ecole Polytechnique massacre had attempted to join the Canadian army, but was turned away.

I can't find much on the background of Patrick Edward Purdy of the 1989 Stockton massacre, but he seemed to believe he was a member of Hezbolah, even though he wasn't.

Gang Lu of the 1991 University of Iowa massacre was a Chinese national, and China has mandatory universal conscription, so he probably had a military background.

Jamie Rouse, 1995 Richland High School, was 17 and a high school student, so had no military background.

Barry Loukaitis, was 14 on his 1996 event at Moses Lake, so had no military background.

Thomas Hamilton, the perpetrator of the 1996 Dunblane massacre was a Scout leader. Dunno if you count the BSA as a paramilitary organization . . .

Luke Woodham, was 16 in 1997 (Pearl, Missisipi)

Michael Carneal was 14 during the Health High School massacre in 1997.

Jonesboro, 1998, was perpetrated by a 13-year-old and an 11-year-old, Mitchell Johnson and Andrew Golden.

Columbine, in 1998, was carried out by two teenagers.

Charles Andrew Wiliams was fifteen in 2001, Santana High School.

Maramaru Takuma did not have a military background, 2001 Osaka elementary school massacre.

Robert Steinhauser, of the 2002 Erfurt massacre, was 19 at the time, and not military.

John Jason McLauchlin was 15 in 2003, Rocori High School.

In Red Lake, 2005, Jefferey Weise was 16.

Kimveer Gill did have one month at the Canadian Forces Leadership and Recruit School, but was kicked out before he finished basic training, and well before the 2006 Dawson College murders.

Charles Carl Roberts IV of the 2006 Amish school murders did not have a military background.

I don't think Duane Morrison of the 2006 Platte Canyon incident had a military background, although he did have a long criminal background.

[anton-p-nym.livejournal.com]

Well, Jack Thompson is blaming video games already so I guess it's open season on "plausible" causes.

-- Steve personally doubts it; as xiphias points out, it seems to be the wannabes and other whackos who're into public meltdowns like this.

[bradhicks.livejournal.com]

I'm declining to speculate on identity and motive, having been humbled by my mis-call years ago on the Oklahoma City bombing. I doubt that I care a whole lot about the who or the why. The question I'm scratching my head over, and waiting patiently for an answer to, is how does one guy in a small-ish room kill 30 people before the 28th, 29th, and 30th of them rush him and kick his ass? I'm not saying it's impossible, after all, nobody rushed the San Ysidro MacDonald's shooter even though he had to pause twice to reload. It just leaves me scratching my head. Didn't it dawn on at least some of them, some time around the 20th or 25th person down, that just laying there quietly or whatever wasn't going to save them and that they had nothing to lose by trying? I don't understand people, some times.

[nancylebov.livejournal.com]

I seem to be in a speculative mood tonight, so here goes....

The people in the classroom had no way to coordinate with each other, and could be reasonably sure that the first one up was increasing their own risk, though admittedly not making their risk much higher than it was.

I think you underestimate how much people are told to leave desperate situations to be handled by professionals.

[anton-p-nym.livejournal.com]

And that's assuming that they remained at all rational. I suspect that panic freeze had a big component in may victims' lack of response.

-- Steve knows that us humans don't handle sensory overload like that too well without some sort of preparation.

[romsfuulynn.livejournal.com]

Per early news reports at least some students survived after the teacher and some students were shot in one room and the shooter left. They braced the door with their feet (while lying down). The shooter tried to open the door and shot through the door, but didn't hit them and gave up and went elsewhere.

[bradhicks.livejournal.com]

Yeah, the early reports that I saw claimed that all 30 were in the same classroom, which turned out not to be true. I still question the logic of all of the students I've seen interviewed so far who chose to dive to the floor rather than to jump him, but I can't criticize it, really. What they had wasn't, after all, the clear cut case of "we're all going to die anyway" like the San Ysidro MacDonalds was.

[libertarianhawk.livejournal.com]

Even the ones who did something were slow to react. I suspect the modern upbringing we give kids is giving them a strong push toward "sit tight and do as you're told, wait for authority figures to deal with problems" rather than taking the initiative. I've only heard of one kid trying to rush the shooter, and he was a ROTC cadet. So I figure training is the issue.

[nancylebov.livejournal.com]

It's not just the way kids are raised, it's what adults are told to do.

If you don't have a strong consensus that rushing a gunman is the right thing to do (and I'm not sure that it is), then it isn't likely to happen when people don't have a chance to coordinate.

[nancylebov.livejournal.com]

Gaah--posting in the wee small hours (looks like I need to do something drastic to the lj clock, too).

Let's try it again. If there isn't a strong preliminary consensus about rushing gunmen, then how do you know when there's going to be enough people doing it that you don't make yourself target #1?

[libertarianhawk.livejournal.com]

how do you know when there's going to be enough people doing it that you don't make yourself target #1?

Well . . . I think the thing most needed on the defenders' side is someone willing to volunteer to be target #1, in the hopes that this will inspire enough others to join the rush that it works. This is something you do not because "it'll probably work" but because the other options suck worse. And even then it requires a strong character to pull off, something I've not been tested on myself.

[izzylobo.livejournal.com]

The killer was Cho Seung-Hui, a 23yr old resident alien from South Korea. He was an English major at VTech. S.Korea has a conscript army - all males are required to serve, usually a 24 month tour of duty. So "military background" of a sort.

Anyone know if VA's gun laws allow resident aliens to acquire firearms, specifically pistols, legally?