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Predictions
Nov. 28th, 2016 09:02 amA whole lot of people are making a whole lot of predictions.
I recommend keeping track of your predictions so that you can learn something about how accurate your model of the world is.
If you have a testable prediction, there's Prediction Book for keeping track of whether it comes true. You can make your predictions public or private.
Not a testable prediction, but I promise to try to not gloat if you turn out to be wrong.
My informal prediction is that Trump and his friends will steal a tremendous amount of money. I'm less sure about governmental and street violence. Things will probably get somewhat worse, but I don't have a strong feeling about how bad things will get.
Annoyingly, we can only test predictions about the effects of one candidate's victory.
We are in historically unprecedented territory so far as I know. Normally, when a country starts to become authoritarian, it then becomes authoritarian. America, as a relatively free country with a strong opposition, is in an unusually good position to resist.
I recommend keeping track of your predictions so that you can learn something about how accurate your model of the world is.
If you have a testable prediction, there's Prediction Book for keeping track of whether it comes true. You can make your predictions public or private.
Not a testable prediction, but I promise to try to not gloat if you turn out to be wrong.
My informal prediction is that Trump and his friends will steal a tremendous amount of money. I'm less sure about governmental and street violence. Things will probably get somewhat worse, but I don't have a strong feeling about how bad things will get.
Annoyingly, we can only test predictions about the effects of one candidate's victory.
We are in historically unprecedented territory so far as I know. Normally, when a country starts to become authoritarian, it then becomes authoritarian. America, as a relatively free country with a strong opposition, is in an unusually good position to resist.
