The biggest common distortion to analysis that I find absolutely everywhere in US academia is the assumption that democracies mean fewer wars and greater stability. Sample size? Interpretation of causes for war? How you count wars?
That increased stability is both obvious and provable - a successful democracy (ie one where the populace accepts the results of elections and where the candidate with the most votes actually wins) means a lack of succession wars, while aging or dying autocrats invite instability, and civil wars over succession are considerably far more common in autocratic governments.
OTOH, the question of whether democacies or autocratic governments have fewer external wars is far less obvious.
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zvi and
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Date: 2011-10-01 09:10 am (UTC)That increased stability is both obvious and provable - a successful democracy (ie one where the populace accepts the results of elections and where the candidate with the most votes actually wins) means a lack of succession wars, while aging or dying autocrats invite instability, and civil wars over succession are considerably far more common in autocratic governments.
OTOH, the question of whether democacies or autocratic governments have fewer external wars is far less obvious.