Harry Potter: a prediction and some questions

[nancylebov]

Here's a simple prediction because I'm not a Harry Potter expert. Dumbledore will be out of action for the big fight in book 7. He may be taken out of action by book 6.

I believe this because there's been so much of "Dumbledore will save us" that it's dramatically necessary for him not to be there so the focus can be on Harry and crew.

I'm betting that Dumbledore will be dead or incapasitated rather than a traitor. I think it's a little more elegant for his problems to start in book 6 than for a rock to drop on his head one chapter before the big fight.

There's a small chance that it'll be a fair fight even if Dumbledore is there. Voldemort could turn out the be the front man for something/someone more powerful than he is, but the books don't feel that much like the Lensmen series to me.

The other possibility is that some other unrelated menace could show up to keep Dumbledore busy--this feels a little more likely to me since Rowling is very inventive and keeps adding stuff. It's not restrained and orderly art, but it's definitely part of what I like about the books.

Anyone else have theories based on what's dramatically needed rather than what can be shoehorned into the story so far?

My impression from a small sample of other fans is that most folks believe that Dumbledore knows what he's doing, and all his decisions are based on complete knowledge and large plans. This is probably the best premise for fan fiction, but I think it's more plausible that he's scrambling as fast as he can. He's running a school with random students and what seems like a very limited and weird teacher pool. He's also facing a complex attack by a fairly capable and very violent villain. Is there textual evidence either way about how complete Dumbledore's knowledge is?

Also, as I reread _HP & the Order of the Phoenix_, I'm thinking about how hard it might be to get wizard society to work at all. Magically capable individuals have a lot of power, and (I suspect) pretty good chances of using it anonymously.

Comments

[redaxe.livejournal.com]

My impression from a small sample of other fans is that most folks believe that Dumbledore knows what he's doing, and all his decisions are based on complete knowledge and large plans. This is probably the best premise for fan fiction, but I think it's more plausible that he's scrambling as fast as he can.

IMO, the truth is somewhere between these. He clearly had some knowledge (via prophecy and an understanding of Voldemort's powers/goals) and a plan for where he wants to go (including how to aid Harry), but the forces of Good (including Dumbledore) are dealing with each specific incident as well as they can.

Anyone else have theories based on what's dramatically needed rather than what can be shoehorned into the story so far?

I've posited Dumbledore's death prior to the final battle for about five books now. More, I think the Pensieve will become an important tool. Two scenarios post-Dumbledore: (1) Someone (Neville) finds out how to absorb the memories and knowledge of the contributors to the Pensieve, but gets overwhelmed and fails, leaving Harry to face Voldemort with only his (Harry's) own abilities or (2) Harry does the same, faces a hard period of integration, and succeeds at fully abosorbing what's in there, and with it, defeats the Big Bad. (Or (2)(a) abosorbs the knowledge, including a method of resurrecting Dumbledore -- highly unlikely, considering that the premise of Voldemort's evil is an attempt to cheat death -- and we get our Obi-Wan/Gandalf back, post-victory. But I really really doubt it.)

As an aside, my better half has long suggested that Macgonnagal acts oddly on occasion (being harder on Harry and easier on Malfoy than might be expected; I will have to get her to provide the examples), and has suggested that this is due to something like the Malfoys having leverage on her. Something like, for example, her being Lucious's mom or aunt. We shall see...

[nancylebov.livejournal.com]

Now that I'm thinking about it, I'll bet that Dumbledore is incapasitated/dealing with another attack/has a lame excuse rather than dead for the big fight.

Imho, Rowling is reluctant to kill major characters or have major changes, and would rather have Dumbledore around to tell HP and crew that they did good.

[kressel.livejournal.com]

I think the Pensieve will become an important tool . . . Someone (Neville) finds out how to absorb the memories and knowledge of the contributors to the Pensieve

Hats off to you! I'm only half-way through the book, but it appears that Dumbledore is teaching Harry to use the Pensieve in exactly that way.

[madfilkentist]

Snape is due to commit some great redeeming act. This could happen at the climax of the septalogy, or he might get killed earlier saving Harry.

If I were living in Canada and turned out to be right, could I be cited for contempt of court? :)

[redaxe.livejournal.com]

If I were living in Canada and turned out to be right, could I be cited for contempt of court? :)

As contemptuous as you may be of that court, you'd have to have a great degree more certain knowledge than this (highly reasonable) speculation for them to cite you.

I might suggest that his redeeming act could have to do with his role as head of Slytherin House (perhaps reuniting it in comity with the other three?).

[nancylebov.livejournal.com]

I can't imagine what Snape could do which would redeem his abusive style of teaching, but I agree that the plot might well go as you say.

[leduck.livejournal.com]

I agree that Dumbledore will be taken out of action, probably killed in this book. It is often a part of the hero's journey that the adults cannot save them, so I figured from the first book that Dumbledore would eventually be taken out.

I beleive that he has more knowledge than most of the wizarding world, but that he is improvising as he goes along. At the end of Order of the Phoenix he acknoledges long-term mistakes in how he has involved Harry.

I also think that Neville will somehow come in to his own powers and avenge his parents and that he will be more centrally involved in this book but not really come into his own until the final book.

[avram]

Rowling has an established history (Goblet of Fire) of having a series of highly variable events turn out to be part of an overly-complicated master plan.

[kressel.livejournal.com]

Isn't she incredible?! What incredible plotting must have gone into this series!

Thanks so much for this thread, Nancy. It's a relief for my poor, tired eyes.

[nancylebov.livejournal.com]

I'm glad you're enjoying it--I was a little concerned that it would be redundant to (with?) all the other Harry Potter discussions.

[kressel.livejournal.com]

Oh, no, it's a pleasure. I was involved in a flame war in one of my lj communities, and in real life, Motcha ran into a deer with our car, so it was such a relief from stress to click on this discussion, intellectual AND fun!

[thnidu.livejournal.com]

Sure, there are zillions of HP discussions, but I'm NAgonna* add any of them to my addictions. You, OTOH, brought this one right onto my LJ Friends' List. :-)

* NOT going to

[sturgeonslawyer.livejournal.com]

H'mmm.

If Dumbledore does die in #6, then one of the Three Companions will have to die in #7 -- there is a clear pattern of Worse Stuff happening in each and every volume, and that's the only thing that could be worse than Dumbledore dying.

At a guess the Big Traumatic Death in #6 will be Hagrid or McGonnagle, but I wouldn't put money on it; Rowling has surprised me in each and every book (even though Sirius' death in #5 wasn't much of a surprise).

[cathyr19355.livejournal.com]

I've just finished Book 6. If you want any spoilers, or just to sound out theories, feel free to email me.