Should there be mandatory evacuations from New Orleans?

[nancylebov]

I have some arguments for why there shouldn't. Firstly, the government is in favor of it and it involves threatening people. I'm not giving the government the benefit of the doubt in regards to New Orleans. They've done too much outrageously wrong.

Secondly, there might be some advantages to having ordinary people living in New Orleans. (The level of damage varies a lot depending on the neighborhood. Afaik, the planned evacuation orders also vary by neighborhood.) They can at least do some guarding of their houses and start to rebuild.

It's going to cost something to supply them with food and water, but it's going to cost something take care of them elsewhere, and the resources elsewhere are stretched pretty thin, too.

People's pride and determination isn't some dispensable little thing.

The people who are staying have more detailed knowledge of their situation than the people who want to force them out do.

Having people in New Orleans increases the pressure to get basic services and the clean up done quickly. See above about the benefit of the doubt.

The argument in favor of mandatory evacuation is the risk of disease, and I grant that it's a serious argument and it may come from the geek side of government, the part which has been ignored to such disasterous effect.

Comments

[madfilkentist]

The "mandatory evacuation" actually was announced over the weekend before Katrina hit. Now I guess they're saying "and we mean it."

Some of the reports by interdictor indicate that there are elements within the troops who like to bully people (no surprise); removing people by force will provide them with many more opportunities to abuse their powers.

[xiphias.livejournal.com]

Yeah. At this point, I could see the CDC ordering a manditory evacuation. In the US government in my mind, where everybody knows their job and does it well, it would be the CDC doing so -- and when the CDC orders an evacuation, well, you evacuate.

Lemme put it this way: as far as I know, malaria has been eradicated in the United States.

This would be a damn poor time to find out I'm wrong. And NOT evacuating New Orleans until it dries out would pretty much guarantee that, if there's ANY chance of a malaria outbreak, we'd have one.

[filkerdave.livejournal.com]

Oh, no, malaria has not been eradicated. There were a couple of cases of it at a scout camp here on Long Island only a couple of years ago.

http://www.health.state.ny.us/press/releases/1999/malaria.htm

[xiphias.livejournal.com]

Then we're fucking screwed if they don't manange to completely evacuate New Orleans. Up until relatively recently, malaria was among the biggest killers in the Southern United States. It's still just about the biggest killer worldwide. If it comes back strong, well, there's another big step towards third-world status.

[filkerdave.livejournal.com]

On the other hand, do we not have effective treatments for it now? (Getting those treatments to affected people is left as an exercise for the reader)

[xiphias.livejournal.com]

Treatments? Sort of. Cures? No. And there have started to be quinine-resistant strains of malaria.

Fundamentally, treatment for malaria hasn't sigificantly improved -- or, really, changed -- since 1650. We've got some synthetic forms of quinine now, which are somewhat cheaper to produce than harvesting Cinchona bark, but which are less effective.

[nancylebov.livejournal.com]

Yeah? I didn't put the pro-evacuation argument at the end because I thought it was right. I have serious doubts about both courses.

[xiphias.livejournal.com]

I kind of feel about it the way I feel about the manditory evacuation of the West Bank settlements in Israel: it's sad, and there are serious civil rights questions, but it's probably the somewhat less-worse course to take.

Of course, I have even less faith in the National Guard than I did in the IDF. . . the IDF was removing people who they considered to be "their own" -- the New Orleans police Department is thinking that way, but I'm not convinced that the National Guard will.

[nancylebov.livejournal.com]

I was incredibly impressed with how the IDF handled it. I was convinced that while a withdrawal from the Gaza might very well be a good idea, it would also involve Jews killing Jews (this hasn't *quite* happened, afaik), and I'm not taking that prediction back unless no one assassinates Sharon over the withdrawal.

It was nice to see a government actually paying attention to what it was doing.

[orangemike.livejournal.com]

The argument in favor of mandatory evacuation is the risk of disease, and I grant that it's a serious argument and it may come from the geek side of government, the part which has been ignored to such disasterous effect.

Awww, nothing to worry about there:
Infectious Disease Research in and Around New Orleans
http://thememoryblog.org/archives/000588.html

"Summary: At the very least, there are two Level-3 biolabs in New Orleans and a cluster of three in nearby Covington. They have been working with anthrax, mousepox, HIV, plague, etc. There are surely other labs in the city."

(Thanx to purpletigron for that reassuring information!)

[nancylebov.livejournal.com]

I finally say something nice about the government, and what do I get?

I can only hope that most of the disease agents were wrecked by the heat, but that wouldn't apply to anthrax.

[bradhicks.livejournal.com]

Disease is only one of the risks, but it's a non-trivial one. We're already seeing diseases that were long under control in this country break out in other places because people who were evacuated from New Orleans late had been exposed; that can only get worse with each generation of mosquitos.

But the other two risks are related. First of all, if anybody stays, then a full law enforcement presence has to stay (and continue to be exposed to those risks) to protect them from people who might want to victimize them. And, to be honest, to protect them from each other.

Secondly, because much of the really valuable property was up on the higher ground, and for a long time protected from the looters via a now-shrinking moat, it's now taking a good chunk of those 40,000 National Guard to protect the banking district, the jewelry stores, and an awful lot of perfectly salvagable property from organized looting. If they can empty New Orleans out and lock it down, they can withdraw most of those troops, too.

[nancylebov.livejournal.com]

Your "no troops because everyone's out" scenario assumes it's possible to get everyone out. I would assume that it *might* be possible to get all the orderly people out, but the result will be that it's still necessary to guard the expensive stuff.

Let's Go!

[nwl.livejournal.com]

to guard the expensive stuff

Or the buildings minimally damaged that could become damaged due to fire, which has also become a danger. And we are NOT out of hurricane season yet.

There is also a question of liability - people who stay will sue, even though it was their idea to stay. They will have no access to services such as water, power, emergency services (no 911 or ambulance), or health care. By some staying, this will encourage people to come back who were save elsewhere.

This is going to be a tremendous job to clean up. It might be likened to a cluttered room - it's going to take a whole lot less time to completely clean the floor if all the furniture, papers, and clutter is removed. By clearing the room, any problems, such as missed pet stains or worn spots that can be repaired, can be discovered.

Yes, this is a scary thought - to completely evacuate a city, but I think this might be the time.

That said, I don't think force should be used. I think the hoards of celebrities and journalists should talk with the people and persuade them to leave. From the stories I've seen, you can't throw a rock in the Gulf Coast area without hitting one or the other.

[zsero.livejournal.com]

It's going to cost something to supply them with food and water,

It doesn't have to. I'd have no problem with telling the holdouts that if they insist on remaining they're on their own, and won't receive any sort of help. But if you do that, you can't stop them from bringing in their own supplies.

[solri.livejournal.com]

Jesus, this gets more like Dawn of the Dead every day!