It's the narcissism, not the testosterone

[nancylebov]

http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn9374&feedId=online-news_rss20

Overconfident people are more likely to wage war but fare worse in the ensuing battles, a new study suggests. The research on how people approach a computer war game backs up a theory that “positive illusions” may contribute to costly conflicts.

Link from yhlee.

Comments

[xiphias.livejournal.com]

The vast majority of studies confirm what was already known. Which is to be expected.

It's already a piece of general wisdom that "absolute confidence in your own invincibility" is a good thing in the troops, and a bad thing in the leadership.

[nancylebov.livejournal.com]

I suspect the subject is complicated enough to be worth research. Frex, it's probably important to distinguish between earned self-confidence, enough smugness to not fall into depression, and malignant narcissism.

As for "absolute confidence in your own invincibility", I've heard that the big military training advantage from a background in computer games is that people who have it don't need to be taught to take cover.

Also, even if privates need absolute confidence in their own invincibility and generals (commanders in chief?) shouldn't have it, where in the chain of command should it shift over?

[xiphias.livejournal.com]

Sergeants.

[madfilkentist]

Yesterday I read in Zeitwissen that people learn better if their teachers make mistakes. There may be a connection between these two facts.

[nancylebov.livejournal.com]

Make mistakes on purpose to get attention? Or actual mistakes?

I can believe that narcissistic teachers refuse to admit mistakes, but that's a different issue.

[madfilkentist]

No, this was a matter of seeing how teachers deal with actual mistakes. The specific example was firefighter training, so it was a matter of learning how to deal with situations rather than getting incorrect information in the subject matter. I should have clarified that.

[nancylebov.livejournal.com]

That's similar to argument for why apprenticeship can teach more than classes--in an apprenticeship, you get a chance to see how the master deals with real things going wrong.

[bradhicks.livejournal.com]

I've said for a long time now that it is a precondition for armed conflict that both sides must believe that they will win. If both sides know who will win, the side that knows that they will lose will make concessions instead, knowing that losing a war would result in the same concessions plus the pain of losing a war. If neither side is sufficiently confident that they will win, they negotiate.

The catch is that the rules of the game allow bluffing as a way of avoiding concessions. And the worst part of that is that sometimes, people fall into the trap of believing their own bluffs.