Suppose that everyone in the Middle East is a human being...

[nancylebov]

http://osewalrus.livejournal.com/56464.html

A longish essay looking at all the major players in the Israel/Palestine/Lebanon conflict as though they have comprehensible motivations and aren't going to be willing to curl up and die because the other side is so obviously in the right. You'd think this would be the obvious way to think about the situation, but osewalrus is the first account I've seen which does a really thorough job of it. It's harder than it looks when there's so much anger and fear and everyone is trying to grab the moral high ground.

I'll throw in one more category. I expect that there are any number of Arabs who are pretty much like me--more interested in living well than in ultimate right and wrong. I think that if I were living there, it would be obvious to me that Israel is quite willing to screw up my life or end it at any time because of terrorist behavior I have no chance of controlling, and I'd be more inclined to blame the Israelis (who are operating on a much larger scale) than the terrorists.

More generally, I think a major problem is that all the major players think they have a right to punish with impunity. However, none of them have the sort of relationship (which is more like parent/child or government/citizen) which makes using punishment a completely safe strategy. I don't mean that punishment is never appropriate under those circumstances, but thinking you're entitled to punish without the other side hitting back guarantees that the conflict won't end.

I'm quite concerned that the current attack on Lebanon could be the inspiration for Arab governments to pull their acts together. Arab military incompetence has been a contingent fact. It isn't a law of nature.

Comments

[chickenfeet2003.livejournal.com]

Arab military incompetence has been a contingent fact. It isn't a law of nature.

True. But military incompetence is far more common than the opposite.

[malkingrey.livejournal.com]

Counting on it, though, is in itself a higher-level form of incompetence.

[chickenfeet2003.livejournal.com]

Quite so

middle east

[fabricdragon.livejournal.com]

I recomend the book "Knowing the enemy" which is about the Jihadist movement in the middle east. It covers history and motivations and etc. It also explains why they attack arab citizens as well.
Sadly it is not the best written or organized of books, but the materiel is good if you can wade through the writing.

[anton-p-nym.livejournal.com]

Thanks for the link, Nancy; that was an excellent analysis piece. I had many of the pieces myself (took International Relations back in college lo these many years ago) but osewalrus put them together in a much more organised and cohesive manner than I could.

-- Steve's still hoping that some sort of compromise can be hammered out... but isn't really optomistic.

[suecochran.livejournal.com]

I don't think Israel has ever thought that they're entitled to punish without the other side hitting back. It's more like they think (accurately based on existing evidence) that the other side will hit them with roughly the same frequency, severity and passion whether or not they inflict punishment, so there's no incentive not to.

[nancylebov.livejournal.com]

If punishment makes no difference at all, why punish?

[dr-zrfq.livejournal.com]

Ideally, to reduce the other side's capacity to do damage. (If the other side is gonna throw things at you no matter what, force 'em to throw beach balls rather than bowling balls, if you can.)

Whether this is the actual goal, and if so, how well it is being accomplished (and at what cost), are obviously open to debate.

[cellio]

Is it about punishment, or about reducing ability to attack?

[avram]

Except that up until the current situation, Israel’s conflict with Hezbollah was mostly confined to military targets. With two or three exceptions, Hezbollah had avoided attacking civilian targets, to the extent where the Israeli military regarded its relationship with Lebanon as a model it wanted to try to get Hamas to conform to in Gaza.

[womzilla.livejournal.com]

I've previously identified this type of thinking as "they can't hate us more than they already do". The steady rain of missles in Haifa indicates why this is a fallacy.

[celestialabyss.livejournal.com]

Thanks, Nancy, for the link and commentary, quite true and cogent.

Anyhow, this is Diann from ages ago (GAPA), glad to have tracked you down!

[nancylebov.livejournal.com]

You're welcome, and it's good to see you.