nancylebov: blue moon (Default)
[personal profile] nancylebov
Castro could have been a lot worse. Afaik, he never committed mass murder, and he made reasonable arrangements for succession. Many Communist dictators didn't manage to do as well.

Still, if Cuba ever opens up, it's going to turn out to be a lot worse than many people think. Guys, if people take a major risk of dying to get out of a place, it's bad. It doesn't matter what the health care system or the literacy rate is, there's something very wrong.

While I'm strongly opposed to the embargo-- it's an massive infringement of freedom for Cubans, and a presumptuous one for Americans, it's far from the whole reason Cuba is so impoverished. Cuba is free to trade with the rest of the world, and if Cuba had much worth selling, it would get smuggled into the US.

Date: 2008-02-21 03:56 pm (UTC)
twistedchick: watercolor painting of coffee cup on wood table (Default)
From: [personal profile] twistedchick
and if Cuba had much worth selling

That's pretty presumptuous. If you don't know what they have, how do you know what it's worth?

Date: 2008-02-21 04:01 pm (UTC)
madfilkentist: Carl in Window (CarlWindow)
From: [personal profile] madfilkentist
What a country has to offer in trade isn't secret.

Date: 2008-02-21 04:21 pm (UTC)
twistedchick: watercolor painting of coffee cup on wood table (Default)
From: [personal profile] twistedchick
And what it has under one government may not be the same as what it would have under a different one, which may endorse or support different industries.

Cuba trades in food and many other things with Canada, and has done so for decades, very satisfactorily.

Date: 2008-02-21 04:33 pm (UTC)
madfilkentist: Carl in Window (CarlWindow)
From: [personal profile] madfilkentist
"Very satisfactorily" to whom? To those in power, yes. To the country in general, it's been a pretty miserable state of affairs.

What it needs to be more successful isn't a government that endorses and supports different industries, but one which doesn't pick favorites. It would also benefit if the US did the same. The US sugar industry wouldn't look kindly on free trade with Cuba, but the rest of us would benefit noticeably from unilateral free trade.

Date: 2008-02-21 04:40 pm (UTC)
twistedchick: watercolor painting of coffee cup on wood table (Default)
From: [personal profile] twistedchick
By 'satisfactorily', I mean that the products I have run across in Canada were of good quality and offered for a reasonable price, comparable to those from other countries.

What are you considering to be unilateral free trade? Unilateral on whose side?

Date: 2008-02-21 04:57 pm (UTC)
madfilkentist: My cat Florestan (gray shorthair) (Default)
From: [personal profile] madfilkentist
Brain glitch. Bilateral. I don't know what "unilateral trade" is either.

Date: 2008-02-21 05:27 pm (UTC)
twistedchick: watercolor painting of coffee cup on wood table (Default)
From: [personal profile] twistedchick
Okay. :)

Date: 2008-02-21 06:06 pm (UTC)
avram: (Default)
From: [personal profile] avram
"Unilteral trade" would make a good euphemism for looting.

Date: 2008-02-21 07:25 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] jordan179.livejournal.com
"Unilteral trade" would make a good euphemism for looting.

"The Vikings carried out a "unilateral trade" with the Irish monasteries."

I like that!

Date: 2008-02-21 07:35 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dcseain.livejournal.com
I like that! :D

Date: 2008-02-21 05:53 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] jordan179.livejournal.com
Cuba trades in food and many other things with Canada, and has done so for decades, very satisfactorily.

Under Batista, Cuban agriculture was highly productive, exporting a surplus and feeding the Cuban population. Cuba was the richest country in the Carribean aside from America herself.

Under Castro, Cuba can barely feed itself and produces a tiny surplus at the expense of half-starving the Cuban masses. Cuba is one of the poorer countries in the Carribean.

Castro's policies failed. It's that simple.

Date: 2008-02-21 06:29 pm (UTC)
avram: (Default)
From: [personal profile] avram
Under Batista, Cuban agriculture exported food instead of feeding the Cuban population. Batista sold agricultural goods to American corporations at below-market prices, and his people went hungry.

Cuba has great prospects. I'm sure that if it were ever allowed to follow a policy of true free trade it would do pretty well. But it never has been, even before Castro.

Date: 2008-02-21 07:24 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] jordan179.livejournal.com
Under Batista, Cuban agriculture exported food instead of feeding the Cuban population. Batista sold agricultural goods to American corporations at below-market prices, and his people went hungry.

It's my understanding that, compared to the 1950's, Cuba is now far less agriculturally productive, and that the Cuban people are today much closer to famine than they were then. In other words, that Castro has diminished his exports and yet still been unable to feed his people, thanks to Communism.

Date: 2008-02-21 08:18 pm (UTC)
avram: (Default)
From: [personal profile] avram
That's my understanding, too. But that doesn't mean that the people who went hungry under Batista suddenly, through the magical rose-colored glasses of anti-Communism, retroactively become not-hungry.

Twistedchick seems to be pursuing some weird argument running perpendicular to Nancy's original statement that Cuba's poverty can't be blamed solely on the US embargo. But that doesn't justify burnishing Batista.

Date: 2008-02-22 02:38 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] jordan179.livejournal.com
Oh, I'm not a fan of Batista's. However, under Batista the Cuban economy was still growing: under Castro it has been moribund for decades. I never claimed that Cuba was ever wealthy by First World standards.

Date: 2008-02-21 06:05 pm (UTC)
avram: (Default)
From: [personal profile] avram
What does that have to do with the embargo?

Date: 2008-02-21 04:03 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] cakmpls.livejournal.com
There have always been some people who would take tremendous risks to get out of a place where others were content to stay. No one (AFAIK) has ever had to take a major risk of dying in order to leave the U.S., but certainly some people have given up a great deal to do so. It isn't just the place one is leaving, but the place one is going to, one's own priorities, one's personality...

Date: 2008-02-21 05:54 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] jordan179.livejournal.com
There have always been some people who would take tremendous risks to get out of a place where others were content to stay.

Do you honestly believe that Cuba is no worse than most other countries, and that the risks that people take to leave Cuba aren't far greater than those they take to leave most places?

Date: 2008-02-22 04:30 am (UTC)
avram: (Default)
From: [personal profile] avram
According to this Observer human rights index (I can't tell what year it was published), Cuba comes in at #35 on the list of 100 worst countries for human rights. I seem to recall there being 192 countries in the world, so if Cuba is 35th worst, that makes it worse than about 82% of countries.

Date: 2008-02-21 04:08 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dcseain.livejournal.com
Their cigars, cigarillos, and other tobacco products are brought in here frequently, by both legal, and illegal, means.

Date: 2008-02-21 04:20 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] papersky.livejournal.com
And they are openly on sale here, along with their rum, which lots of people seem to like, and their chocolate, which is pretty good.

The chocolate is good enough that the major Swiss chocolate company Lindt chose it as one of their "terroir" chocolates, along with Madagascar, Peru, Ecuador and I Forget (we didn't like that one so much) to make chocolate from just those beans. I guess Lindt don't have much of a US market, or those things are pretty specialised, though I can buy them at the grocery store, so I guess not.

Rum is the sort of thing people smuggle in (actually, so is chocolate, though not in quantity) and I heard a paranoid rumour that the US rum companies lobby to keep up the embargo on Cuba to keep the Cuban rum out. But a lot of things that could perfectly legitimately be traded (wood, software, steel) wouldn't be the kind of things worth smuggling.

The other thing I notice is that lots and lots of Canadians go on holiday to Cuba in February and March. There's a huge poster of a tropical beach advertising it right by my local metro station. The whole of Canada is only 30-odd million people, and we can't all afford a week in Cuba. Europe is a lot further away. Tourism from the larger, closer US would probably do a lot for Cuba's economy.

I agree that people desparate to leave is a bad sign for a country.

Date: 2008-02-21 07:37 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dcseain.livejournal.com
Yes, when i'm in Canada, it always surprises me the array of Cuban products available. Our government's embargo is so stupid.

Date: 2008-02-21 04:09 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dcseain.livejournal.com
Oh, and by the way, i'm feeling somewhat better today, and look forward to seeing you tomorrow. I'm not 100%, but i'm beyond contagion. Doing some shopping and cleaning today.

Date: 2008-02-21 04:24 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] fabricdragon.livejournal.com
most of what they have to trade is tobacco products (which do get smuggled in)
the main other thing they have to trade is what they had before the revolution.... a vacation resort spot and harbor.

the main reason people are willing to go through so much to get out isnt the poverty. its the political oppression. if you are part of the "wrong" politics, it can be lethal to stay.
and that includes being the kid of someone on the wrong side of the politics

Date: 2008-02-21 05:56 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] jordan179.livejournal.com
the main other thing they have to trade is what they had before the revolution.... a vacation resort spot and harbor.

The poverty of Cuba actually helps in this regard, because the Cuban people are desperate to please tourists. Prostitution, for instance, has increased roughly tenfold since the Revolution -- far more than has the Cuban population.

Date: 2008-02-21 04:59 pm (UTC)
madfilkentist: Carl in Window (CarlWindow)
From: [personal profile] madfilkentist
As for whether Castro is a mass murderer, he hasn't played in the same league as Stalin and Hitler, but he's generally considered responsible for the deaths of about 100,000 prisoners around the time he came to power.

Date: 2008-02-21 07:39 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dcseain.livejournal.com
Yes, also still a tiny fraction of what the governments of Chile and Argentina killed during the years of the desaparecidos.

Date: 2008-02-21 05:10 pm (UTC)
ckd: small blue foam shark (Default)
From: [personal profile] ckd
My feeling on the embargo is that while it's not the whole reason Cuba has economic problems, it gives the Cuban government a really good excuse for them. Opening it up would improve things slightly, but also lead to "hey, you said it was all about the embargo, why do things still suck?"

Date: 2008-02-21 07:40 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dcseain.livejournal.com
I agree that allowing US companies to trade with Cuba, and US citizens to freely travel there, would do more to undermine the government of the island than the stupid-ass embargo has done.

Date: 2008-02-21 08:09 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] heron61.livejournal.com
From my PoV, Castro was pretty much the best possible option for Cuba, and I'll be very sad indeed if Cuba "opens up), because the proximity to the US will then almost certainly result in it once again becoming a seriously oppressed neocolonial territory. The history of pre-Castro Cuba makes the Castro government look very good indeed.

Date: 2008-02-22 02:43 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] ms-daisy-cutter.livejournal.com
Oh, heaven forbid there be Starbucks and McDonald's there! Much worse than people being shot for "counterrevolutionary" political activities!

Date: 2008-02-22 07:38 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] heron61.livejournal.com
I was rather more thinking of the situation before Castro, when the majority of the population slaved in sugar plantations, and a small and wealthy elite worked with both US organized crime (Meyer Lansky's mob was heavily invested in pre-Castro Cuba) and various ruthless US corporation to find ways to make even more money from these peasants. I see no reason to believe that Cuba "opening up" wouldn't result in an exact repeat. I have nothing against third world nations getting the benefits of US consumer culture. I do object to them effectively becoming slaves.

Date: 2008-02-22 09:12 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] ms-daisy-cutter.livejournal.com
While that scenario was not desirable then and would not be desirable now, neither is/was Fidel's Cuba — which, as Nancy states, is made obvious by how many people have died trying to flee it. Condemning the results of robber-baron capitalism doesn't oblige one to embrace communist repression.

Date: 2008-02-22 02:44 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] henrytroup.livejournal.com
I've maintained for years that the fastest way to get the Castro regime out would be to drop the blockade. However, the politics of the thing are complex, as the old-line Cuban exiles in Miami carry very heavy clout in Florida for all sorts of reasons. And who is the governor of Florida?

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