Maybe we'd be safer if we were kinder, or fairer

[nancylebov]

From the NYTimes:

That is what both Howard Bodenhorn, an economist at Clemson University, and Mr. Price concluded from 19th-century prison records. In that era increased body weight was associated with a lower risk of [committing] crime. In the 21st century, though, in which service jobs are much more common, Mr. Price found that being overweight was linked to a higher risk of [committing] crime.

*****

Mr. Price has suggested that there may be policy implications in his work, saying, “Public health policies successful at reducing obesity among individuals in the population will not only make society healthier, but also safer.”

The Times article also has somewhat about the economic effects of beauty and height.

Link thanks to Mind Hacks.

Comments

[whswhs.livejournal.com]

That's still statistical correlation. What evidence indicates that inequality is the cause and crime the effect, rather than crime being the cause and inequality the effect, or the two being jointly caused by some other factor entirely? Absent such evidence, "highly improbable" means "I can't think of such an explanation"—which in the last analysis leaves us with different subjective priors and no criterion for which is more valid.

[chickenfeet2003.livejournal.com]

In large measure I agree with you. That's a problem with virtually any large scale assertion about society. It's not possible to do controlled experiments so correlation plus a plausible narrative is about the best one can do. Of course, if one wanted to be pedantic about this one could equally validly assert that no scientific hypothesis is provable. I can't prove that smoking causes cancer. It could be that both are caused by some third, independent, factor. Few physicians or biologists (except perhaps those in the pay of big tobacco) would argue that but it can't be disproved. In the original case we were considering, the hypothesis "obesity causes crime" is risible and demonstrably false as it is possible to demonstrate that that correlation is demonstrably false in many instances. The hypothesis "income inequality contributes to a higher crime rate" is at least not contradicted by the evidence. As a lifetime Bayesian I can live comfortably with my subjective prior!

[whswhs.livejournal.com]

Yes, but your priors and mine are likely different. And as you say, it's not a difference that is going to be resolved by pointing to the statistics.