Why you don't know what's going to happen in Egypt

[nancylebov]

It will be the result of decisions which haven't been made yet.

In other news, it's plausible that you will be worse at predictions about cultures that you aren't from than you are at predicting your own culture. How's your track record of prediction about the people you know best?

Comments

[dcseain.livejournal.com]

I'm sorry to say that my country has lived up to my worst fears since 2001.09.11 :-(

[nancylebov.livejournal.com]

What were you expecting?

I know people who were expecting a theocracy and/or a GWB coup.

[lysystratae.livejournal.com]

I was expecting an attempt at a coup by gwb; didn't think it would succeed, tho.

[osewalrus.livejournal.com]

Overall pretty good, actually. The trick is that you use probabilities and try not to get too specific -- unless you really know the person in question. I have, at various times, found my wife and my younger brother in improbable circumstances by knowing their starting point and thinking like them.

For something like Egypt, you go with a a serious of projections based on possible outcomes and factors and continually readjust based on developments.

Human beings are actually not bad at hitting the right time zone sufficient for decision making. We have to be. It is only when we try to get too specific that we have problems.

[richardthinks.livejournal.com]

Well, yes. Also, it's not just cultures, it's the individuals involved. If there are important players in the army and security forces who are considering jumping ship or setting up their own show, they're not telling us yet.

My muscles for predicting what people are going to do are woefully underdeveloped. I tend to hope for the best, prepare for something like the worst and then watch and wait. I'm not sure what else we might do right now about Egypt.

[dr-zrfq.livejournal.com]

First off, I have *no idea whatsoever* whether or not the people with the serious armaments will stay out of the election-influence business. Coupled with that, I have no idea whether the Iranians -- or any other outside organization of whatever stripe -- will attempt any serious influence peddling. I'm rather afraid that the latter is likely.

But for the sake of the rest of this comment, stipulate that the army and police and other security will stay neutral, and that outsiders will Keep Their Mouths Shut. In that case, however unlikely, I'm afraid that it will end up being a battle of demagogues, and whoever makes the most appealing promises will win, as long as those promises appear reasonably fulfillable.

[avram]

I predict that it will turn out worse than our best hopes, but better than our worst fears.

[richardthinks.livejournal.com]

here's someone whose predictions are at least about his own culture.

He's not optimistic. My own prediction - that Mubarak may or may not be safe, but the military establishment certainly is - is based on the apparent lack of strategic leadership for the mob. My son was asking about Egypt last night and we talked about the so-called "Age of Revolutions" around the turn of the 19th century, and how standing armies back then weren't so powerful in comparison with the populace, and how they were poorly centralized/controlled. That's just not the case any more: if you want to dislodge an army you have to be more organized than it is.

Also, if sandmonkey (above) is right, then there's an interesting (and disgusting) play going on with social order and the threat of its removal: a kind of game of revolution from the top down. And an idea that, even with public demonstrations in the millions, somehow what really counts is a kind of media beauty contest between the government and its opposition.