On realistic foreign policy

[nancylebov]

Timothy Burke says:

I think “realism” has to be reclaimed from the people who get called realists. Realists in policy circles flatter themselves relentlessly, saying that only they really know the way the world actually is, only they are prepared to accept and accommodate the inevitable disappointments of the world, only they know the contours of our possible futures. These were the people inside of the world of American and European policy formation who professed (often through leaks and indirect remarks) that the neoconservative dogma of Paul Wolfowitz, Dick Cheney and other planners of the Iraq War horrified them, and for that, they were often regarded as a preferable alternative.

More generally, I think I need to develop the same caution about anything labeled "realism" that I try to have about anything labeled "healthy".

As for Egyptians, I wish them very well-- they've made an excellent start. I'm hoping their example will crack a few more bad governments, and I expect its influence will go beyond the Arab countries.

I'm interested in what they'll do about their police. In addition to poverty, I believe one of their huge issues was that their police were oppressing just about everyone.

I don't think they'd be stupid enough to attack Israel any time soon. On the other hand, I don't think they'll necessarily be maintaining the Gaza blockade, either. And the US will be trying to use money to manipulate Egyptian oil and Israel policies. The future is murky, as usual.

Comments

[madfilkentist]

So-called "realism" often means that ideas play no role in cultural and political change, and power is what drives everything. If this were actually a realistic view, we'd still be groveling before kings and executing witches and heretics.

Changes due to shifts in power structure can happen very quickly, while changes in the climate of staying ideas (not fads) happen very slowly, and the people who think they're realists see only the former.

[sinboy.livejournal.com]

I'm interested in what they'll do about their police.

Fire most of them, I hope. The Egyptian police were noted by multiple journalists to have tortured protesters.

[nancylebov.livejournal.com]

The details are interesting to me. What process is used to identify the bad ones? Can you just fire the majority of your police (or all of them) and start fresh?

What policies are needed at the top? Maybe it would be better to fire supervisors and such?

What do you need to be reasonably sure that an anti-torture policy is enforced?

[schemingreader.livejournal.com]

If they end the Emergency Law, that will take away the police's ability to arrest people for things that aren't crimes under the Egyptian constitution. That would do a lot. I've been reading Radley Balko since you recommended him, and I notice that in the US, we have a lot of safeguards in law against police abuse. It doesn't mean that it doesn't happen, but we have recourse. The main obstacle for Egyptians to similar recourse is the Emergency Law.

Wikipedia has a helpful summary of the constitution and a link to a translation in English: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitution_of_Egypt